Homebuilder Confidence Nearly Triples In 2 YearsComments Off on Homebuilder Confidence Nearly Triples In 2 Years
The National Association of Homebuilders (NAHB) Housing Market Index ended its 8-month winning streak this month, posting a value of 47. The January 2013 reading is on level with last month, and remains at a near 7-year high.
The Housing Market Index (HMI) is a measure of home builder confidence.
HMI readings below 50 indicate a “poor” new construction conditions for single-family homes nationwide; ratings above 50 signal “good” ones.
Not since April 2006 has the Housing Market Index crossed into “good” territory, but the past two years have witnessed the HMI nearly triple; and the index is up from a reading of 25 just twelve months ago.
Values would have likely increased this month, too, if not for builder uncertainty. The NAHB cites concern over prolonged legislative decisions as contributing factors to this month’s builder confidence reading. Specifically, the trade group expressed concern over the future of the federal income tax deduction for home mortgage interest and spending cuts related to the recent, so-called “fiscal cliff”.
As compared to the month prior, this month’s HMI showed the following :
January marks the tenth consecutive month through which buyer foot traffic has increased. Foot traffic is now at its highest level in nearly 7 years.
The NAHB Housing Market Index suggests a slow, steady rise in confidence among the nation’s home builders. This is occurring, in part, because of improving housing market conditions both nationally and regionally. Another factor is rising confidence among today’s home buyers.
Home sale prices Naperville remain relatively low and mortgage rates sit below 4 percent. With demand for homes growing, prices are expected to rise. Home buyers this season may be more likely to get a good “deal” than the buyers of spring or summer.
Pending Home Sales Index Cruises To Multi-Year HighComments Off on Pending Home Sales Index Cruises To Multi-Year High
Home buyers continue to push the U.S. housing market forward.
In November, for the second straight month, the Pending Home Sales Index eclipsed its benchmark reading of 100, posting a value of 106.4.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) is published monthly by the National Association of REALTORS®. It tracks homes under contract to sell, but not sold. The PHSI is relative index, comparing current contract activity to the activity of 2001 — the first year for which “pending homes” were tallied for an index.
The Pending Home Sales Index has posted an average score of 100.2 from January 2012 through November 2012, the most recent month for which there’s data. This is a significant data point because it means that the 2012 housing market is performing better than the 2001 housing market; one which is widely considered a strong one for housing.
It’s also meaningful because it foreshadows a strong market for 2013. With an increasing number of homes under contract to sell, it can be assumed that “closed units” will increase in the future, too.
The National Association of REALTORS® says that 80% of U.S. homes under contract go to closing within 60 days, and that many of the remaining homes go to closing within days 61-120.
The monthly Pending Home Sales Index, therefore, can foreshadow to today’s buyers and sellers what’s ahead for the housing market.
The Pending Home Sales Index is a forward-looking indicator.
Based on November Pending Home Sales Index, we should expect to the home resale market to remain strong, and to pick up strength, through the first quarter of 2013. Demand for homes is high, mortgage rates are low, and buyers are looking to get a good deal.
The first few months of the year are often thought to be “slow” for the housing market. This year, however, that may not be the situation. If you’re actively looking for homes , the best prices may be the ones you get this winter.
Case-Shiller Index Posts 4% Annual Home Price GainComments Off on Case-Shiller Index Posts 4% Annual Home Price Gain
The U.S. housing market continues to make home price gains.
Earlier this week, the S&P/Case-Shiller Index showed home prices gaining 4.3 percent during the 12-month period ending October 2012, marking the largest one-year gain in home prices since May 2010.
The Case-Shiller Index measures changes in home prices by tracking same-home sales throughout 20 housing markets nationwide; and the change in sales price from sale-to-sale. Detached, single-family residences are used in the Case-Shiller Index methodology and data is for closed purchase transactions only.
Between October 2011 and October 2012, home values rose in 18 of the 20 Case-Shiller Index markets, with previously-hard hit areas such as Phoenix, Arizona leading the national price recovery.
The top three “gainers” for the 12 months ending October 2012 were :
Only Chicago and New York City posted annual home value depreciation. On average, homes lost -1.3% and -1.2% in value, respectively.
It should be noted, however, that the Case-Shiller Index is an imperfect gauge of home values
First, as mentioned, the index tracks changes in the detached, single-family housing market only. It specifically ignores sales of condominiums, co-ops and multi-unit homes.
Second, the Case-Shiller Index data set is limited to just 20 U.S. cities. There are more than 3,000 cities nationwide, which illustrates that the Case-Shiller sample set is limited.
And, lastly, the home sale price data used for the Case-Shiller Index is nearly two months behind its release date, rendering its conclusions somewhat out-of-date.
That said, the Case-Shiller Index joins the bevy of home value trackers pointing to home price growth over the last year. The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA), for example, reported similar home price growth with its October 2012 House Price Index (HPI).
Home values rose 0.5 percent between September and October 2012 nationwide, the FHFA said, and climbed 5.6 percent during the 12 months ending October 2012.
Economists attribute increasing home prices to higher buyer demand, record-low mortgage rates and the gradual improvement of the U.S. economy.
Housing Starts, Building Permits Rising Into 2013Comments Off on Housing Starts, Building Permits Rising Into 2013
Single-family housing starts took a small step back in November.
According to the monthly Housing Starts report from the U.S. Department of Commerce, single-family housing starts tallied 565,000 in November 2012 on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. This marks a 4 percent decline from October, but is more than 100,000 higher than the count from 12 months ago.
Clearly, the nation’s new home construction market is expanding.
On a regional basis, single-family housing starts have been strongest in the Midwest; and Hurricane Sandy appears to have affected the number of starts across the Northeast.
As compared to one year ago:
It’s expected that new construction growth will continue into 2013, too. This is because the Department of Commerce report also showed Building Permits mostly unchanged for November at 565,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis.
As compared to November 2011, this marks a 25% increase. Permits for multi-family homes are up 17%, too.
There are more building permits being issued today that at any time in the last 4 years.
For home buyers, this may be good news. Rising permits and housing starts suggests a more healthy U.S. economy, but it also means that home supplies may not be as tight throughout the next few months.
Overly-tight home supplies in some U.S. markets have contributed to rapidly rising home values. With more construction and larger home inventories, home prices may rise in 2013 less slowly.
The good news, though, is the mortgage rates remain near all-time lows and low- and no-downpayment mortgage programs are abundant. For today’s home buyer, there are plenty of affordable ways to purchase a home.
Talk with your real estate agent and your loan officer to see which plan works best for you.
Homebuilder Confidence Rises For 9th Straight MonthComments Off on Homebuilder Confidence Rises For 9th Straight Month
The National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) released its Housing Market Index (HMI), showing another monthly gain — its ninth in a row.
The HMI — a gauge of homebuilder confidence — rose 1 point to 47 in December 2012, lifting the index to its highest levels since April 2006.
Readings under 50 indicate unfavorable housing conditions for builders. Readings over 50 signal “good” conditions. Coincidentally, the last time that the HMI read above 50 was April 2006, too.
The Housing Market Index is based on a survey which the NAHB sends to its members. The survey asks the nation’s builders to rate the current housing market conditions.
In December, home builders reported gains in two of the three areas surveyed:
It’s noteworthy that buyer foot traffic has climbed over nine straight months and is now at it’s highest reported level in nearly 7 years. Low mortgage rates and rising home prices have compelled today’s renters and existing homeowners to consider their home buying options.
This was none more apparent that in the Northeast Region in which builder confidence grew twelve points to 42. The Midwest Region also showed a strong improvement, climbing 2 points to 53. The West and South regions fell slightly between November and December.
For today’s buyers, rising builder confidence may be a signal that home prices are headed higher. Confident home sellers — including the nation’s builders — are less likely to make price concessions into an improving market, or may be less likely to offer free upgrades to buyers.
Therefore, if you are in the market for a newly-built home, consider that you may get the best “deal” by acting sooner rather than later. Mortgage rates are rising and home prices are, too. Six months from now, your costs of homeownership may be higher.
Short Sales Outnumber Foreclosure Sales For Third Straight QuarterComments Off on Short Sales Outnumber Foreclosure Sales For Third Straight Quarter
Foreclosure-tracker RealtyTrac reports falling foreclosure sales nationwide as banks get better at selling homes via short sale.
In its Q3 2012 report, RealtyTrac says that 193,059 homes in some stage of foreclosure were sold, accounting for 19% of all residential home sales. In addition, pre-foreclosure sales — also known as “short sales” — climbed 22% on a year-over-year basis.
For the first time since 2007, the number of short sales outnumbered the number of homes sold in foreclosure over three consecutive quarters.
The average price of a short sale home fell by 5 percent as compared to a year ago which may reflect an eagerness on the part of mortgage lenders to dispose of distressed properties before they fall into foreclosure. Foreclosures can increase a lender’s losses, and foreclosed properties be expensive to manage.
Compare the average Q3 2012 sale price of a home in short sale versus one in foreclosure :
It’s not just the higher home sale prices that have pushing banks to settle on short sales, either. Short sales are less costly, too. Foreclosing on a home requires banks to pay court costs, among other fees, and which positions the short sale outcome as a clear winner for many banks.
For homebuyers , the banking industry’s shift toward short sales is welcome news.
Buying a short sale has been a notoriously slow process with a lack of defined timeline. As banks improve their distressed sales division, they’re getting faster and more efficient. This makes it “easier” for a buyer to buy a home in short sale.
However, don’t buy a short sale without the help of an experienced, licensed real estate professional.
The negotiation process is different for a short sale than with a “traditional” home purchase. Time lines are different, responsibilities are different, and purchase contract language may be different, too. The same is true for buying a foreclosure.
Improving Market Index : Up To 201 Cities For December 2012Comments Off on Improving Market Index : Up To 201 Cities For December 2012
Last week’s National Association of Home Builders/First American Improving Markets Index (IMI) brought positive news about U.S. housing markets and the broader U.S. economy, in general.
According to the IMI, there are now 201 U.S. markets which can be considered “improving”.
To meet this standard, a local area economy must exhibit at least six consecutive months of improvement in terms of local employment, single-family housing permits and area home prices; and, at least six months must have passed since each of these readings were at their respective low points, called troughs.
The Improving Market Index added 76 metropolitan areas in December as compared to the month prior. 45 states are now represented on the list, in addition to the District of Columbia.
The cities deemed “improving” aren’t limited to recent, high-profile hot spots such as Detroit, Michigan; and Phoenix, Arizona, either. Several of the newly-included areas for December were :
The geographic diversity of this month’s Improving Market Index suggests a nationwide economic recovery in progress. More jobs, a steady supply of available homes, plus rising home prices helps communities thrive.
Unfortunately, it may also mean less opportunity to buy homes as rock-bottom prices.
As sellers and home builders gain confidence in the economy, it may be more challenging for today’s buyers to get a “great deal”. In addition, an improving, post-recession economy will likely lead mortgage rates higher, robbing home buyers of their purchasing power.
Freddie Mac says that the average 30-year fixed rate mortgage rate is 3.32% nationwide. In a fully-recovered economy, that rate could be 5 percent or higher. The impact on monthly housing payments would be palpable.
The National Association of Homebuilders expects more markets to join the Improving Market Index list through 2013. Today’s home buyers may want to lock in today’s low rates before economic improvement leads mortgage rates higher.
Pending Home Sales Index Leaps To Multi-Year HighComments Off on Pending Home Sales Index Leaps To Multi-Year High
Homes were sold at a furious pace last month.
According the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR), the Pending Home Sales Index rose 5.2 percent in October, crossing the benchmark 100 reading, and moving to 104.8.
It’s a 5-point improvement from September’s revised figure and the highest reading April 2010 — the last month of that year’s federal home buyer tax credit.
October also marks the 18th consecutive month during which the index showed year-to-year gains.
As a housing market metric, the Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI) differs from most commonly-cited housing statistics because, instead of reporting on what’s already occurred, it details what’s likely to happen next.
The PHSI is a forward-looking indicator; a predictor of future sales. It’s based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condominiums, and co-ops. Later, when the contract leads to a closing, the “pending” home sale is counted in NAR’s monthly Existing Home Sales report.
Historically, 80 percent of homes under contract, and thus counted in the Pending Home Sales Index, will go to settlement within a 2-month period, and a significant share of the rest will close within months 3 and 4. The PHSI is a predictor of Existing Home Sales.
Regionally, the Pending Home Sales Index varied in October 2012 :
A Pending Home Sales Index reading of 100 or higher denotes a “strong” housing market.
Of course, with rising home sales comes rising home values. 2012 has been characterized by strong buyer demand amid falling housing supplies. It’s one reason why the Case-Shiller Index and the FHFA’s Home Price Index are both showing an annual increase in home prices. Plus, with mortgage rates low as we head into December, the traditional “slow season” for housing has been anything but.
The housing market is poised to end 2012 with strength. 2013 is expected to begin the same way.
More Bullish Data : Housing Starts Climb 3.6%Comments Off on More Bullish Data : Housing Starts Climb 3.6%
According to a joint release from the U.S. Census Bureau and the Department of Housing and Urban Development, Housing Starts rose 3.6% in October 2012, climbing to a seasonally-adjusted, annualized rate of 894,000 units.
A “housing start” is a new home on which construction has started and the report gives buyers and sellers across MD yet one more reason to be optimistic for the 2013 housing market.
Regionally, Housing Starts varied.
The West and Midwest Regions posted gains between September and October 2012; and, the South and Northeast Regions posted declines. The latter was affected by the effects of Hurricane Sandy.
Single-family housing starts — starts for homes not considered multi-unit properties or to be apartment buildings — was mostly unchanged, slipping 1,000 units on a seasonally-adjusted annualized basis.
The Housing Starts data is the third housing-related release this week that hints at a strong start for the 2013 housing market.
Early in the week, the National Association of Homebuilders released its Housing Market Index (HMI), a measure of home builder confidence in the new construction market. The HMI posted 46 — the highest reading since 2006. With mortgage rates low and buyer traffic high, builders are expecting a rash of sales between now and the New Year, and an elevated number of closing over the next six months, in general.
The HMI is scored on a scale of 1-100. One year ago, it read 19.
Then, the National Association of REALTORS® showed Existing Home Sales climbing 2.1% and home supply fell to a multi-year low. At the current sales pace, the entire U.S. home inventory would be sold in just 5.4 months. Analysts believe that a home supply of less than 6.0 months favors home sellers.
In unison, these three housing market reports suggest a sustained, national housing market recovery. Home prices are expected to rise into next year’s housing market.
Existing Home Sales Move Higher In OctoberComments Off on Existing Home Sales Move Higher In October
After a small decline in September, Existing Home Sales rebounded in October, increasing a modest 2.1%.
The housing market’s slow, steady recovery continues as sales volume in all four regions expanded last month with the exception of the Hurricane Sandy-affected Northeast.
The National Association of REALTORS® monthly Existing Home Sales Report comprises completed sales of single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums, and co-ops. The Existing Home Sales report is compiled on a seasonally-adjusted, annualized basis. It shows a 10.9 percent sales increase as compared last year.
Sales volume might otherwise be higher, however, if not for a lack of homes for sale.
Total housing inventory fell 1.4 percent to 2.14 million homes last month which, at the current sales pace, represents a 5.4-month national supply — the lowest in more than 6 years.
The lack of supply amid burgeoning demand has led home prices higher nationwide. October’s median existing home sale price was $178,600 — an 11.1% increase from October 2011 and the eighth consecutive month during which the median sales price rose.
The last time that occurred was during the eight months ending May 2006.
In addition, the Existing Home Sales report showed that the median time on market in October rose to 71 days, up 1 day from September 2012. As compared to October 2011, however, median time on market is down 26% from 96 days.
Other noteworthy statistics from the October Existing Home Sales report include :
Furthermore, thirty-two percent of homes sold in October were on the market for less than one month. 20% were on the market for six months or longer.
Record-low mortgage interest rates continue to spur housing, as do low prices. Neither will last indefinitely. If you plan to purchase a home in Washington, DC in 2013, therefore, consider moving up your time frame. Home ownership will likely increase in cost as the year moves on.
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